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On November 20, the threaded steel futures opened low, with the lowest price in the main 1901 contract session reaching 3735 yuan/ton, a new low since July 20, closing at 3742 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or 2.86%, and the monthly cumulative decline of the contract was more than 9%. Steel prices have been falling recently. According to data from Jin Lianchang, the price weakness of the national construction steel market intensified last week. Futures continue to go down, the spot market atmosphere is pessimistic, the transaction is obviously deserted. Although there are still environmental production restrictions and inventories continue to decline, the demand side is gradually shrinking, businesses are panicked about the late trend, and some of the non-inventory pressure businessmen are singing out, in order to buy at a low level, leading to a sharp drop in market prices. Based on this, Jin Lian recently launched a mental attitude survey on the steel price trend this week. The results are as follows: only 19% of people hold a bullish view on the price of this week, which is 2 percentage points higher than last week's bullish share; 33% are bullish, 6 percentage points higher than the previous period; 48% are bearish, 8 percentage points lower than the previous period. Overall, the recent price decline is larger, and the proportion of continued bearish declines slightly, but the overall bearish proportion is still larger. From the basic point of view, Jinlianchuang Iron and Steel analyst Zhang Jinping said that as of November 15, according to incomplete statistics, there were 10 production line overhaul plans this week, involving 8 steel factories and more than 14 production lines, which are expected to affect the output of finished products in more than 685,500 tons. 6 of them are being overhauled, of which 1 will be resumed and 4 will be completed. This week, there are 17 blast furnace overhaul plans involving 13 steel plants and 32 blast furnaces, which are expected to affect hot metal production of more than 78.9 million tons per day. 8 of them are being overhauled, 1 are permanently shut down, 5 are planned to be overhauled, and 3 have been overhauled. From this week's survey, although the impact of steel plant overhaul has not increased significantly, with the deepening of environmental protection and production restriction, and steel market into the off-season, steel plants began to plan regular overhaul, and it is expected that steel plant overhaul or continue to increase in the later period. Inventory data show that the national construction steel inventory continued to decline in the current period, with a total of 3.2327 million tons of threaded steel, a decrease of 104,600 tons compared with the previous period, and a total of 13.5561 million tons of wire rods and snails, an increase of 32,000 tons compared with the previous period. The price of the national construction steel market is lower. Due to the weakness of futures, there are many rainy days in recent days, and demand is not good. Although the steel mill Limited production and insured price, the overall supply pressure is not large, inventory continues to decline, but the current price is higher, lack of market confidence, low turnover mainly. On the demand side, with the cold weather in the north and the increased haze and other factors, the demand for construction sites in the north will gradually weaken, and the demand for construction sites in the south is still in a relatively peak season, which also leads to the re-popularity of Beibulu in the south. Therefore, the inventory pressure in the north is not large, but the demand in the south is weak, but the demand in the south is still acceptable, but the inventory pressure tends to increase, and the overall base. This area tends to deteriorate. In summary, Zhang Jinping said that because there is no news of a particularly good steel market in the current market, the futures market is weak and unchanged, and the spot price gap is large, there is still room for the spot market to make up for the decline, but due to the large recent decline, the space for further decline or narrowing. It is expected that the price trend of construction steel will fluctuate somewhat this week, or there will be frequent ups and downs, overall or weak, with a reference drop of about 50 yuan/ton. (source: China Securities Journal, China Certification Network)

Today's opening day, black futures continued to fall, hitting a four-month low of 3813 yuan, which is only a week after last Monday's (12) low of 3818 yuan. Spot market fell faster, the first impact is billet prices, the weekend plunged 90 yuan, finished product prices also tend to downward adjustment. The market generally believes that the adjustment is expected, and this year's adjustment is earlier than previous years, which is widely seen in the industry. First, the price is high, second, the output is high, third, the profit of steel mills is high, "three high" has a great impact on the market, from which the market exists the demand for adjustment. The fatal thing is that the weakening of future expectations is reflected in the leading futures market, which is accelerated by the decline of the futures market, and the spot market is running back to cash. From the recent market performance, the spot decline is faster than futures, and the northeast and south of Guangzhou region has increased resources, fierce market competition and a larger price reduction, but the overall market turnover is unsatisfactory, Hangzhou and other individual areas have a base. The market entered the "winter" ahead of panic. When people lament "autumn" is too short, there are four doubts. Even if expected weakness is recognized by the market, even if there is panic. But such a large retreat and the slump of steel bilge are still beyond the imagination of the market. In addition to some factors of the market itself, the relationship with the market fundamentals is not very big, because at present, except for the expected changes, the market fundamentals have not been fundamentally reversed. In the case of such low inventory and terminal demand, such a large adjustment is still beyond expectations. The impact of emotional and financial aspects is considerable, the market speculation is expected, expected to weaken, the wind is moving, triggering emotional panic, capital use of market sentiment to write articles. Tangshan area is the distributing center of domestic steel market. It is the epitome of steel market, and is the image of all living beings in steel market. Recently, the market rumors, since the beginning of October, a large Zhejiang household combined with Tangshan households to make use of the advantages of funds, in order to short Tangshan spot in a combination way. Reverse base operation is performed at near positive base points. The margin of spot traders is at least 100 million. However, in the face of two market opportunities to release profits of 160 points, the company conservatively estimates that it will make at least 60 million profits at the actual cost of 40 million yuan, but it is puzzling that the company did not choose to liquidate its warehouse in order to obtain Tangshan Steel Trade and its win-win outcome, but still chose to continue to close the spot at a low price. Eventually, Tangshan billets, strip and even steel fell continuously. Continuous breakdown of small traders margin, and trigger chain turbulence in the market. The figure and power of capital operation can be seen. But the market should not panic blindly and trample on it, which will aggravate the turbulence of the market and even indirectly make the steel market advance into winter. On the other hand, a big retreat beyond market expectations may indicate the arrival of a phased rebound. But at the same time, we must see that the current conditions do not support the big rebound in the steel market conditions, and can not be too high expectations. However, after many unsuccessful counter-attacks, the market psychological fatigue is obvious. If the panic mood persists, the futures fall less, the spot accelerates, and the possibility of the spot closing to the futures is relatively greater. And this year, futures snails have repeatedly shocked. For short-term experts and some industry hedgers, there are reasons for fighting. For long-term speculation, the speculative value has weakened. Compared with the stock market which has been at the bottom in recent years, it is clear that the stock market has more speculative value. Therefore, this part of the fund movement also needs attention. In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities of China today is 4419 yuan (ton price, the same below), 76 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities of China is 4650 yuan, 82 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities of China is 3863 yuan, 28 yuan lower than yesterday. The average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities of China is 4573 yuan, 9 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities of China is 4047 yuan, 68 yuan lower than yesterday. In terms of raw materials, the price of 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan is 3580 yuan today, up 30 yuan from yesterday; the price of 61.5% Australian PB iron ore powder in Jingtanggang is 585 yuan, up 5 yuan from yesterday; and the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan is 2700 yuan from yesterday, which is flat. (source: Lange steel)

After a sharp pull-up in the early period, the price of threaded steel began to recover substantially for two consecutive weeks. It stopped falling this week and rebounded somewhat in some areas, but the range was not large. In the context of unstable trend of futures, spot prices of threaded steel also intensified the shocks. At present, the main feature of spot transactions is fear of high spirits. Once prices show a large fluctuation trend, market transactions will be affected. In the first three quarters of this year, China's economy was generally stable and continued to maintain a reasonable range. In October, manufacturing investment rose to a higher level in recent years. The cumulative growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry has been steadily rising since March this year. First, the cumulative growth rate of investment in machinery manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing and special equipment manufacturing has increased by more than 10 percentage points compared with March. Second, investment in related industries, including iron and steel, non-ferrous and building materials, which are the focus of environmental protection policies, has increased steadily. The cumulative growth rate is also more than 6 percentage points higher than that in March. After the environmental protection requirements are significantly increased, the related investment in pollution prevention and control in these industries should be an important driving factor for the significant increase in the corresponding investment growth rate. Recently, the air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is serious. Emergency plans have been launched in many places, and relevant documents have been issued to restrict the production of iron and steel enterprises. In view of the pollution process from 13 to 15, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment proposed that 25 cities in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan and Shaanxi should issue early warning, 8 cities in Hebei Province and 6 cities in Henan Province should issue orange early warning and start second-level emergency response measures, and 11 other cities should issue yellow early warning and start up. Level III emergency response measures, including Beijing at 8:00 on the 13th and Tianjin at 12:00 on the 13th. Generally speaking, the current problem facing the steel market is the shrinking demand in winter, while the current production situation of steel enterprises is relatively stable, so the later inventory may increase, thus forming pressure on prices. At present, the price of steel is high, and the market is afraid of high sentiment. However, due to the favorable supporting factors in the market, the short-term price is still expected to recover, but the range will not be too large, referring to 50-100 yuan/ton. (source: economic reference daily)

The latest market report shows that the domestic spot steel price has expanded, the market turnover is weak, and the iron ore market has declined steadily. According to the latest market report provided by the domestic iron and steel information agency "My Steel", the domestic spot steel price composite index closed at 155.43 points in the recent week, falling by 2.45% in a week. Spot prices have fallen more sharply than before, and market turnover is weak. Businessmen generally take price reduction operations to get delivery. According to analysis, in the construction steel market, prices fell sharply. The average price of the main thread of the main market in China is 4532 yuan per ton and 109 yuan per week. According to the latest inventory data, the overall output of threaded steel is still at a high level, and the social inventory has declined, while the stock of steel mills continues to accumulate, which shows that the market demand is weaker than before, the merchants are cautious in taking goods, and the pressure is shifting to steel mills. In the sheet metal market, prices generally fell. The price of hot rolled coil has fallen sharply. The average market price of hot rolled products of main market specifications in China is 3950 yuan per ton and 120 yuan per week. Medium and heavy plate prices also fell sharply. The average price of medium plate in the mainstream specifications of major markets in China was 4172 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan per week. Expectations for market demand are relatively weak. The iron ore market is generally stable and downward trend. According to the latest report of "Xiben Shinkansen Line", the price of iron concentrate in China maintained stable and the stock was low in the domestic mining market. The price of imported iron ore fell continuously. As of the 15th day, the price of 62% grade imported iron ore was US$74.15 per ton, down by US$2.1 annually. The reduction of iron ore stocks in major ports in China has slowed down significantly, which indicates that the pace of purchasing and reserving iron ore stocks in steel mills is also slowing down, and ore traders are not fully confident of future market expectations. Related agencies believe that the current steel market price decline widened. However, the social inventory continues to decline, the production reduction and maintenance of steel mills will increase in the latter period, and the sharp drop in the market releases part of the risk, which will play a balancing role in the steel market to a certain extent. (source: Xinhua)

This week, the domestic steel market as a whole showed a downward trend. As of November 16, 2018, the comprehensive price index of Langer Steel reached 162.2 points, down 2.54% from the same period last week and 4.38% from the same period last month; the price index of long steel reached 183.5 points, down 2.7% from the same period last week and 2.85% from the same period last month; and the price index of sheet steel reached 142.8 points, down 2.55% from the same period last weekend and 6.15% from the same period last month. . The market continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but futures markets rebounded once as trade relations between China and the United States eased, new macroeconomic data moderated and improved, environmental policies to limit production piled up around the world and sudden inspections in fog and haze. However, it is mainly reflected in the rising of the futures price, the rebound of spot billet price except for the overshoot, the price of finished products has not shown a prominent performance, and the negative decline pattern continues. With the release of the new inventory data, factory warehouse increases, social warehouse decreases, and the decline of social warehouse continues to narrow, the market pessimistic expectations rebound, and future and present prices oscillate again lower. structural steel Specific spot prices, monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in 10 major cities in China was 459 yuan, down 118 yuan from last Friday and 86 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 16, the average price of 6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 major cities in China was 4750 yuan, down 119 yuan from last Friday and 144 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 16, the social stock of construction steel in 29 key cities in China had reached 3.5458 million tons, down 11.76 million tons, or 3.21%, 29.24% from the same period last month, and 16.7% from the same period last year, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform. Board As for the price of hot rolled coils, the monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 3891 yuan, 117 yuan lower than last Friday and 342 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 16, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 1.9623 million tons, down by 769,000 tons from last Friday, a margin of 3.78%, down by 5.35% from the same period last month and 7.9% from the same period last year. As for the price of cold rolled coils, as of November 16, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4582 yuan, 134 yuan lower than last Friday's price and 265 yuan lower than the same period last month. As for inventory, as of November 16, cold rolled coil inventory in 24 key cities in China had reached 922,200 tons, which was 0.59% lower than last Friday, 9.38% lower than the same period last month and 8.86% higher than the same period last year. As for the price of medium and heavy plate, as of November 16, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 417 yuan, 92 yuan lower than last Friday and 221 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 16, the total inventory of medium and heavy rolls in 29 key cities in China had reached 10.161 million tons, which was 1.28% lower than last Friday, 7.57% lower than the same period last month and 4.04% higher than the same period last year. Forecast This week's domestic spot price performance is slightly different from the previous futures plunge, spot slightly different, early in the week, the current market showed a synchronous rapid decline, and the futures market in two failed counter-attacks last week, market sentiment is more sensitive. In the mid and late period, spot prices once deviated. With the relatively good macro data and industrial production restrictions, futures prices rebounded several times, but spot prices continued to decline. But eventually, at the end of the week, all roads lead to the same goal. How is the pace of market going? I believe that the market sentiment is still relatively large. In the case of poor expectation, market inventory becomes the key direction of price. Once there is a slight change, it is amplified by the market. This week's new inventory data show that factory warehouses are increasing and social warehouses are still in the downward channel, but the slowdown is slower than before. Overall, crude steel production reached a record high of 82.55 million tons in October. The market is worried that prices will accelerate the decline in the context of seasonal shrinkage of demand. Businessmen in order to prevent the next continued decline, or even a big drop, run ahead of time to reduce prices, drop bags for peace of mind significantly increased. But with such a high production volume, the social library still shows a continuous decline, indicating that demand is still acceptable. This has been reflected in the new macro data. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's fixed assets investment increased by 5.7% from January to October, 0.3 points higher than the previous September; infrastructure investment increased by 3.7%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous September; construction area increased by 4.3%, accelerating by 0.4 points; new construction area increased by 16.3%, falling by 0.1 points; from the data point of view, the operation is good. In addition, the production is so high that there is the possibility of sudden production before the arrival of the heating season production limit, so it is not representative and needs to be observed. According to the rhythm of the futures market this week, the decline of the futures market has slowed down significantly after the sharp fall, and there is an overshoot rebound. But at present, they are all in a dilemma. The overall market has little or no breakthrough. And some of the funds will be profitable, and low prices will begin to lay out. This makes short-term 1901 main contract shock will be more frequent. Therefore, the demand is concerned about the flow of capital. In addition, with the arrival of all kinds of heavy news, the focus of the market has shifted to the formal implementation of the heating season production limit which began on Thursday. On November 16, 2018, among 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises surveyed by Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, 101 blast furnaces in 60 steel plants were repaired (including shutdown and stoving equipment, the same below), two more than last week (7 new blast furnaces were repaired this week, 5 blast furnaces were re-produced), and the volume of the repaired blast furnaces was 79920 cubic meters.

Editor's Note: With the vigorous promotion of structural reform on the supply side by the state, the operation quality of the iron and steel industry has improved significantly this year, and the industry's profitability has returned to the average level of industry. The target of 1.5 million tons of steel production capacity will be completed two years ahead of schedule. However, China still has a long way to go before it can truly become a powerful steel country. We still need to establish a long-term mechanism to prevent overcapacity and avoid falling into the circle of repetition. From 9 to 10 November, "2018 (7th) China High-end Forum on Iron and Steel Technology and Economy" co-sponsored by Institute of Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research and China Metal Society was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Vice President Qu Xiuli of China Iron and Steel Industry Association said that the operation quality of the iron and steel industry has improved significantly this year, and the profitability of the industry has returned to the average level of industry. Profits in September increased by 80% over the same period last year. According to reports, China's steel production has maintained growth since the beginning of this year, and the linkage between production and demand is better. From the inventory point of view, social inventory is relatively low, and enterprise inventory is basically at a normal level. From the market perspective, the operation is relatively stable, steel prices fluctuate slightly. In the first 10 months, the average steel price index was 116.35 points, up 10.56% year-on-year, and decreased by 0.07% at the end of October compared with the beginning of the year. "Iron and steel enterprises to improve efficiency and leverage to achieve results." Qu Xiuli said that in the first nine months, the total profit of the member enterprises of China Steel Association was 230 billion yuan, an increase of 86.01% over the same period last year; the profit margin of sales was 7.5%, which was 2.88 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the profit level of the iron and steel industry returned to the average level of the industrial industry. At the same time, the asset liability ratio of the steel industry has declined and debt paying ability has improved significantly. Looking ahead to the trend of the industry, Qu Xiuli believes that steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly and will not fluctuate sharply; the fourth quarter of the steel enterprise benefit is expected to decline annually, but this year it will still maintain a growth trend. The smooth and stable operation of the steel industry has obviously benefited from the country's efforts to push forward the structural reform of the supply side. The target of 150 million tons of iron and steel to remove the capacity ceiling will be completed in 2018, two years ahead of the original plan; completely banning "floor steel", eliminating the market cancer, and giving full play to the superior production capacity of iron and steel. Data show that from January to September, the utilization rate of steel industry capacity was 78.1%, higher than the national average level of industry. Long term mechanism still needs to be explored Experts at the meeting generally believed that, with the remarkable effect of structural reform on the supply side, great achievements have been made in the development of iron and steel industry, and the pace of transformation and upgrading of enterprises has been accelerated. However, there is still a gap between China and the real building of a strong steel country. There are still some problems that can not be ignored in the industry. Some of them have appeared. Enterprises in the industry should remain calm and calm. "The iron and steel industry must establish a long-term mechanism to prevent overcapacity." Li Xinchuang, Director of Metallurgical Technology and Economy Branch of China Metal Society and Dean of Planning Research Institute of Metallurgical Industry, pointed out that in the development of iron and steel industry, there have been many prosperous situations, but for various reasons, they often have a short period of prosperity and fall into the circle of recurrence. Previous recoveries were mostly driven by cyclical demand for fixed investment and consumption growth, which led to the recovery of the iron and steel industry. This was mainly due to the structural upgrading of the supply side driven by capacity reduction and environmental protection. If we are complacent and do not take advantage of the current good momentum to speed up the structural adjustment of the iron and steel industry and consolidate the achievements made in time, the iron and steel industry is likely to fall into a dilemma again as before. Not only will the previous achievements in capacity removal be discarded, but the difficulty of future readjustment will also be greater. In accordance with the development trend and policy requirements, China's iron and steel industry must conscientiously promote layout optimization, merger and reorganization, green development, quality improvement, variety upgrading, service upgrading and other aspects of work. Leading high quality development with standardization Li Xinchuang said that in the development of high-quality steel products, we should focus on the goal of "Made in China, built in China, served in China, and markedly enhanced international competitiveness of Chinese brands", and constantly improve the quality to meet the needs of upgrading and upgrading the downstream steel industry. Through scientific and technological innovation, iron and steel enterprises should grasp the future development direction of technology, technology and products of iron and steel industry, and adopt advanced technology and equipment to effectively improve production efficiency and product quality. "We must standardize the development of high quality industries." Li Xinchuang emphasized that standards are one of the hard constraints of developing quality, and the standard system of iron and steel industry should be perfected. On the one hand, national standards and industry standards should play a "bottom line" role; on the other hand, iron and steel enterprises should be encouraged to formulate group standards and enterprise standards to meet downstream customer needs, improve service level and establish enterprise brand. Li Xinchuang pointed out that standards are the benchmark and driving force for technological innovation and development. We should give full play to the leading role of standard "tree benchmark" and lead the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of iron and steel industry through standard innovation. At the same time, the threshold effect of "standardization plus" should be brought into play, and the technology supporting role should be displayed in the process of promoting "capacity removal, inventory removal, leverage removal, cost reduction and shortcomings compensation board", so as to eliminate backward production capacity, force enterprises to upgrade and serve "three to one to reduce one to make up". (economic daily and China economic net reporter Zhou Lei)

On November 14, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released data showing that with the deepening of structural reform on the supply side, the overall operation of the iron and steel industry in the first three quarters of 2018 showed a sustained and good development trend. In the first nine months, the output of pig iron, steel and steel in China was 580 million tons, 700 million tons and 820 million tons respectively, up by 1.2%, 6.1% and 7.2% respectively. It is estimated that China's steel output will reach more than 900 million tons in 2018. In the first three quarters, the comprehensive steel price index averaged 116.3 points, up 11.9% year-on-year, and the steel price is at a relatively high level. From the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, steel prices are expected to remain high, but in the long run, the trend of high steel prices is unsustainable. Meanwhile, on the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in October, industrial raw coal production above the scale accelerated, crude oil production increased, natural gas and electricity production remained stable, and energy production overall remained stable. Among them, the output of raw coal is 310 million tons, an increase of 8.0%, crude oil production is 16.69 million tons, an increase of 0.3%, crude oil processing is 52.78 million tons, an increase of 4.6%, natural gas production is 13.4 billion cubic meters, an increase of 75%, and power generation is 533 billion kWh, an increase of 4.8%. In response, Liu Aihua, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the central government has issued a series of policies and measures for environmental protection and pollution control, one of the three major battles this year, which are reflected in the data. For example, the value-added of high-energy-consuming industries increased by 6.9% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September, and increased by 6.4% in the first 10 months. From the output of specific products, we can also see that steel and cement are at a low growth level, so the overall effect of Environmental Protection Policy Governance is relatively obvious. Liu Xiangdong, deputy researcher of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that at present, the production of raw coal and crude oil in industries above the scale increased and the consumption of raw materials accelerated in October, which is related to the recent acceleration of capital investment and the steady progress of the policy of capacity removal. "In the next two years, the structural reform of the supply side of iron and steel and coal industry will focus on structural optimization, that is, enhancing the industrial concentration of iron and steel and coal industry and improving quality and efficiency, thus basically digesting the blind expansion caused by the pre-stimulus policy, and making the enterprise's production behavior more rational and efficient in the future." Liu Xiangdong said. Liu Xiangdong said that in the process of capacity removal, the main obstacle is to guard against resurrection. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism to prevent excessive production of enterprises, that is, to make full use of market competition mechanism to achieve self-clearance by formulating environmental protection standards, and to minimize administrative intervention to achieve the goal of capacity reduction through production reduction. (source: Securities Daily)

The overnight air raid on New York crude oil prices, which plunged by nearly 7%, did not hinder the rise of domestic black commodity futures prices. On November 14, the domestic black department rose sharply. The main 1901 contract of threaded steel of Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 3850 yuan/ton, which was slightly lower. Then the price went up all the way. The closing price rose 69 yuan/ton, closing at 3937 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%. A Zhongyang Line may also give investors good expectations for the continued decline of threaded steel futures, after all, the spot price now hangs back nearly 700 yuan/ton. On the same day, the black series related to screw steel increased, coke rose 1.91%, Zheng coal rose more than 2%. In a slight sweep of the past haze, many investors are most concerned about the trend of course. On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that crude steel output in October was 82.55 million tons, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year. Although the output of crude steel decreased from the record 8.85 million tons in September, the output of crude steel in January-October was 782.46 million tons, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year. Although the increase in output is not necessarily good for prices, from another set of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's investment in fixed assets increased to 5.7% in January-October, which may highlight that the state's promotion of infrastructure projects has not slowed down, which may be the main driving force behind today's rise. On November 14, the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that with the deepening of the supply-side structural reform, the iron and steel industry in the first three quarters of 2018 generally continued to develop well. Four aspects of good development are as follows: first, crude steel output continues to grow; second, steel prices are running at a high level; third, steel exports tend to be stable; and fourth, enterprise benefits continue to improve. According to the published data, the steel composite price index in the first three quarters averaged 116.3 points, up 11.9% year-on-year, and the main business income of the steel industry increased 14% year-on-year. The rebound of steel industry may also show the trend of development in a certain extent. Spot inversion in the price period of threaded steel is another reason for investors'expectations of the later rise in the price of threaded steel. According to the relevant monitoring data, as of November 13, the average price of threaded steel in the top ten major cities in China was 4538 yuan/ton. Although it dropped 177 yuan/ton from the end of October, the decline of threaded steel futures was even greater. In terms of the threaded 1901 contract on November 13, it dropped as much as 362 yuan/ton from the peak in October. The difference between spot and futures prices is nearly 700 yuan, and this range is still expanding. Although investors are not optimistic about future price expectations, it may also be considered that irrational selling causes the price of futures to fall excessively. This winter, the output of threaded steel may still be significantly higher than in previous years; banning "one-size-fits-all" environmental protection has enabled many steel enterprises to get more environmental protection convenience, and corresponding supporting measures have been introduced in various places. Peak staggering and unlimited production of environmental benchmarking have become the main coordination measures. A large amount of capacity release, when demand has not been significantly improved, will bring high inventory to a certain extent, or will further suppress the pace of rising steel such as threaded steel. In summary, the spot price of threaded steel will probably be stable in the future, or even fall in stages. If the fundamentals continue to improve, futures prices may rebound to some extent. (source: 100 family number)

Futures Daily reporters learned that steel prices fell wildly last weekend, with a one-day drop of 100 yuan/ton on Saturday, with some steel products falling by nearly 200 yuan/ton, and Tangshan billet price of 3800 yuan/ton on the 9th day. Li Ying, an analyst, believes that the reason for the crazy price decline in this round is that the real impact of the production restriction policy has slowed down, the off-season effect dominates the driving force, the contradiction between supply and demand has become prominent, and the price has declined smoothly. Two is the market mentality pessimism intensifies, steel factory traders empty empty list, few without disk. Third, the current price gap is large, the fundamentals are difficult to support the futures upstream, the pressure of repairing the base difference is large, and the spot decline is repaired in the short term. Futures Daily reporter found that for this round of decline, panic among some market operators intensified. Industry insiders believed that with the fall of prices, the demand for empty warehouse replenishment and the consolidation of the basis after short-term repairs, there was no possibility of a sharp decline in prices. This morning, a 20 yuan/ton increase in billets also boosted the short-term market. It is worth noting that steel mills in some areas continue to adjust the ex factory price of rebar. On Nov. 12, Nangang adjusted the price policy of building materials in Nanjing as follows: screw thread was lowered by 50 yuan/ton, and now the executed price of 16-25mm HRB400 screw steel is 4590 yuan/ton. Nov. 12, Shanxi Gaoyi High-speed Line factory listing price dropped 130 yuan, Q235 material 8-10mm high-speed line factory price is 4140 yuan/ton, 6.5 price increase 100, HPB300 material 8-10mm high-speed line factory price is 4170 yuan/ton; Q195 material 6.5mm high-speed line factory price is 4230 yuan/ton; Q195 material 6.5mm high-speed line factory price is 4230 yuan/ton "But in the medium term, without further policy adjustment on the supply side, the off-season effect of demand is further highlighted, and steel prices are expected to remain downward space." Li Ying said. (source: futures daily)

This week, the domestic steel market has witnessed a sharp drop in volume and price, but compared with the broad shocks in the futures market, the spot still shows obvious resilience, with declines ranging from tens of yuan. The turnover situation has weakened, and the overall change is not very big. The daily turnover of threads is still more than 100,000 tons. As of November 9, 2018, the comprehensive price index of Langer Steel reached 166.5 points, down 1.65% from the same period last week and 1.31% from the same period last month; the price index of long steel reached 188.6 points, down 1.81% from the same period last week and up 1.18% from the same period last month; and the price index of sheet steel reached 146.5 points, down 1.66% from the same period last weekend and 3.84% from the same period last month. With the gradual easing of the Sino-US trade war, the settling of the dust in the mid-term elections of the United States, the inactivity of the Federal Reserve and the gradual interest rate increase boots, the external factors are also weakening. The futures market has come out of two waves of V-shaped trend and ended with a fall again. Spot has not improved, indicating that the market is ambitious for the future. The outlook for economic outlook and fundamentals is still weak. structural steel Specific spot prices, monitoring data show that as of November 9, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in 10 major cities in China was 4627 yuan, 80 yuan lower than last Friday and 89 yuan higher than the same period last month. As of November 9, the average price of 6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 major cities in China was 4869 yuan, down 78 yuan from last Friday and up 17 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 9, the social stock of construction steel in 29 key cities in China reached 36.634 million tons, down 269.8 million tons, or 6.86%, 22.79% from the same period last month, and 20.07% from the same period last year. Board As for the price of hot-rolled coils, the monitoring data show that the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4 008 yuan as of November 9, 87 yuan lower than last Friday and 232 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 203.92 million tons, down by 74.4 million tons from last Friday, a margin of 3.53%, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last month, and an increase of 12.47% over the same period last year. As for the price of cold rolled coils, as of November 9, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4717 yuan, 63 yuan lower than last Friday's price and 142 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the inventory of cold rolled sheets and coils in 24 key cities in China was 927.6 million tons, 7.45% lower than last Friday, 5.12% lower than the same period last month and 7.38% higher than the same period last year. As for the price of medium and heavy plate, as of November 9, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 4209 yuan, 69 yuan lower than last Friday and 142 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 9, the total inventory of medium and heavy rolls in 29 key cities in China had reached 1029.2 million tons, which was 19.8 million tons lower than last Friday, an increase of 1.89% over the same period last month and 5.48% higher than the same period last year. Forecast This week's two V-shaped rebounds in the black sector in China ended with a fall. Does this herald the end of the cold winter in the spot market? Is there any trend in November? Specifically, First of all, let's take a look at the main factors affecting the market in the near future. Since November, the influencing factors from the market fundamentals have not changed significantly, except for the peripheral influencing factors which have a greater impact on the market mentality recently, mainly because market expectations have changed unconsciously, which includes two aspects: one is that the expectations of the future economy are weakening, which is domestic. The external macro environment is cyclical. Second, the expectation of future industry fundamentals is also weakening, which mainly includes the change of supply and demand market, the easing of production restriction, the consideration of seasonal weakening factors of demand and so on. Futures are more sensitive to such future expectations, which also makes the futures market show frequent shocks, even in the case of huge short-term basis difference, it can not get out of the repair market. Spot recognition of the current fundamentals is relatively strong, which also weakens the spot market, but overall still shows a strong resilience. At present, the process of "north timber going south" is accelerating, especially in Northeast and northwest areas, where the depots are falling rapidly. At present, the profits of steel mills are still relatively large. The profits of long timber are less than 800 yuan, while the profits of long timber are still more than 1000 yuan, and the output is still high. It is expected that the resources going south this year will be slightly more than in previous years, and the depots will be stagnant in the later period. Entering November, the main battlefield will turn to the Southern markets such as East and South China. Its digestion speed will play a vital role in the market. In addition, due to the influence of the Expo, there is a phenomenon of pressure port in shipping steel products, which totals about 210,000 tons at present, mainly for hot and cold coils, and the follow-up needs to be observed. At present, however, the rate of warehouse decline is higher than that of the same period last year. Although the stocks of threaded steel mills have rebounded, they are in a controllable range. In addition, the domestic macroeconomic aspects, 8 days of import and export data released. Data show that China exported 55.0 million tons of steel in October, an increase of 10.4% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative export of steel in January-October was 58.413 million tons, a decrease of 9.3% compared with the same period last year. Imported steel products 1.138 million tons, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year; China imported 11.103 million tons of steel in January-October, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year. Export figures were stronger than expected. Another important data is that excavator data show great performance. Statistics show that excavator sales grew 44.9% year on year in October, while domestic market sales (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) increased by 39.6% year on year. Export sales of 1782 units, an increase of 104.6% over the same period. It shows that the effect of capital investment policy is obvious. In the long run, with the support of national financial policy, capital construction has reached the bottom and rebounded.

Today's opening, the black department continues to be in a wide range of shocks, and there was a V-shaped rebound in the tail disc (this is the second time since this week), snail performance is more obvious. Futures performance is faster than spot, spot prices are still dominated by weak operation, except for the rebound of billet prices. However, with the rebound of phase steel, some regions and varieties traded slightly better than yesterday. Recently, the market is dominated by the futures market, the fundamentals have been weakened. Affected by the decline of black futures, the market sentiment is slightly pessimistic, and the spot market is basically in a downward state. In addition, the market rumors that some steel mills in Xuzhou are about to resume production have an impact on market sentiment, adding the influence of peripheral negative factors, and now the two-way resonance declines. As the dust settled in the mid-term elections in the United States and the results were basically in line with expectations, the focus of the market turned to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early morning of tomorrow, and investors were more concerned about the fast rate increase. At present, the market generally believes that the recent U.S. economic data has not changed much, so it is not enough to change the December rate hike and the plan to continue to raise interest rates next year. At home, import and export data are released today. Data show that China exported 55.0 million tons of steel in October, an increase of 10.4% compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative export of steel in January-October was 58.413 million tons, a decrease of 9.3% compared with the same period last year. Imported steel products 1.138 million tons, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year; China imported 11.103 million tons of steel in January-October, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year. Export figures were stronger than expected. Another important data is that excavator data show great performance. Statistics show that excavator sales grew 44.9% year on year in October, while domestic market sales (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) increased by 39.6% year on year. Export sales of 1782 units, an increase of 104.6% over the same period. It shows that the effect of capital investment policy is obvious. In the long run, with the support of national financial policy, the rebound of infrastructure is expected to continue, which is good for the domestic steel market. At present, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, the two reservoirs have slowed down slightly faster than the same period last year, while the thread production has decreased. However, due to the weakening of market expectations for late environmental production restriction, the lack of further speculation and major positive stimulus, the overall performance has entered a stagnation period. In the short term, the market is still facing greater uncertainty. Looking from the futures market, although there is a rebound today, the main force is mainly shown in the reduction of warehouse up, the reduction of nearly 100,000 hands in the futures tail. From the current situation, 1901 is facing a change of warehouse, a large number of short positions moved to 1905, which provides the possibility for the market to continue to rise, but at present both sides are more cautious, and bulls dare not rashly build warehouses. And most of them fight and retreat, wait and see, wait for the opportunity, so even if there is upward space will not be very large, the role of the lead on the spot is limited. Considering the low inventory level, downstream rush still exists, even if the futures market is back to its original shape again, the spot adjustment space will not be very large. In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 4630 yuan (ton price, the same below), 18 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of_6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4872 yuan lower than yesterday, 22 yuan lower than yesterday; and the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil in key cities in China is 4032 yuan, 25 yuan lower than yesterday. The average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities in China is 4220 yuan, down 14 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities in China is 4263 yuan, down 15 yuan from yesterday. In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan is 3820 yuan, up 10 yuan from yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade PB iron ore powder in Australia is 587 yuan, down 3 yuan from yesterday; and Tangshan quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke with tax arrival price is 2700 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday. (source: Lange steel)

On November 7, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association (CISIA) said that in October, due to the influence of the steady growth policies and measures of the state, the market expectations increased, the release of iron and steel production capacity maintained a high level, which led to the increase of iron ore demand expectations and prices. Later market is about to enter the off-season of steel consumption, steel output will be reduced, iron ore demand intensity will show a downward trend, price is difficult to sustain rising, will show a small fluctuation trend. At the end of October, the China Iron Ore Price Index (CIOPI) was 272.14 points, up 22.25 points, or 8.90%, compared with the previous month, an increase of 5.43 percentage points. Steel output began to slide. According to the statistics of the 10-day report of the Iron and Steel Association, in the middle and early October, the average daily production of crude steel by member iron and steel enterprises was 197.83 million tons, which was estimated to be 2.528 million tons of crude steel nationwide, down 7.13% from September, and the daily production of iron in China was estimated to be 203.3 million tons, down 8.12% from September. Affected by the decline in steel production, iron ore demand intensity has also been reduced. Inventory. According to CISCO's monitoring, at the end of October, the stock of imported iron ore ports in China was 145 million tons, up 20,000 tons annually, up 0.01%; but it rose 9.24 million tons annually, up 6.80%, still at a higher level; in September, the output of pig iron in China was 66.38 million tons, down 0.42%; while the import of iron ore was 93.47 million tons annually, up annually. 4.61%. Overall, the situation of oversupply of iron ore market has not changed. Judging from the trend of steel prices, due to relatively stable demand, supply pressure is greater. According to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 121.72 points at the end of October, up 0.08 points and 0.07% from September, showing a narrow fluctuation trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry dropped by 0.6% in October, with the production index and new order index falling by 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. It is expected that the price of iron ore will not continue to rise in the late stage and will show a slight fluctuation trend. Wang Guoqing, of Langer Iron and Steel Research Center, told China Securities News that in October, due to the fluctuation of raw material prices, the supporting role of cost on later steel prices was gradually strengthened; the social stock of steel increased first and then decreased, especially the pressure of building materials inventory decreased; and from mid-November, the limited production of heating season will be released, and the steel production capacity will be released. It will be restrained, but demand will shrink and the improvement of supply-demand relationship will be limited due to the coming winter in the north. It is expected that the steel market will show high volatility in November. (source: China Certification Network)

Today is the "winter" of the twenty-four solar terms of the lunar calendar, and the cold will come as promised, and the trees will begin to wither away. In November, the price of rebar also showed a slight decline. According to the monitoring data of Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, as of November 7, the average price of tertiary threaded steel (25mm) in ten major cities in China was 4658 yuan per ton, a cumulative decrease of 57 yuan per ton from the end of October. With the advent of winter, will the steel market be "cool"? Will prices continue to fall? In November, many policies on environmental protection and limited production have been introduced. The action plans for air pollution prevention and control in autumn and winter in Fenwei Plain, Tianjin and Shandong Province have been launched one after another. On November 3, the plan for staggered peak production in the iron and steel industry of Tangshan City in autumn and winter 2018-2019 was deliberated and approved by the municipal government at the 17th executive meeting of the 15th session, requiring all localities to implement it conscientiously. From the above policies, we can see that this year's regulations on production restriction are flexible, and environmental standards (air quality) have become the most important local standards for production restriction. Because the environmental policy of production restriction is not as large as previously expected, leading to a certain degree of impact on spot market confidence, leading to a slight decline in the price of screw steel in November. But there is no need to be too pessimistic. In the fourth quarter of this year, the steady growth of the country and the work of building up the infrastructure are gradually beginning. From the data of the first three quarters, we can see that 147 fixed assets investment projects have been approved and approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, with a total investment of 697.7 billion yuan. Among them, transportation fixed assets investment completed 2.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4% compared with the same period last year, of which expressway investment completed 702.6 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0% compared with the same period last year. Infrastructure investment will further accelerate and demand for steel will continue to increase. In addition, the recent market in some areas of 28 mm or more of the large-scale screw steel resources have been interrupted, and the large-scale screw steel is used in the new start-up stage of the project, which shows that the current start-up of the new project is still relatively good. In addition, steel stocks have been kept for 3 weeks to maintain a substantial decline. According to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, as of November 2, the social stock of steel in 29 key cities in China was 8.098 million tons, down 368,000 tons from last week, and down 1.13 million tons for three consecutive weeks. Low inventory has played a good supporting role in steel prices. Why did the price of rebar continue to decline slightly since November? Will there be a sharp fall in the price of later steel bars? Wang Guoqing, director of Langer Iron and Steel Research Center, said that the continuous decline of rebar in November was mainly due to the high price caused by the continuous rise in the earlier period, which now belongs to the rational callback. On the other hand, it is also affected by the return of the peak season and the coming of the off-season, which has led to the loss of market confidence. However, at present, the inventory pressure of threaded steel is low, and the late heating season production restriction will have a certain inhibitory effect on the supply. Moreover, the current cost is also increasing. The continuous high price of iron ore and coke, together with the implementation of new national standards on screw steel on November 1, has caused the demand for vanadium and niobium to rise and the price to rise, which has played a supporting role in steel prices. Therefore, the rebar space is limited, and in the late stage, the high pitch is the keynote. (source: Lange steel)

In October, influenced by the steady growth policies and measures of the state, the market expectations increased, and the release of iron and steel production capacity maintained a high level, which led to the increase of iron ore demand expectations and prices. Later market is about to enter the off-season of steel consumption, steel output will be reduced, iron ore demand intensity will show a downward trend, price is difficult to sustain rising, will show a small fluctuation trend. 1. China's iron ore price index has increased. According to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) was 272.14 points at the end of October, up 22.25 points annually, or 8.90%, 5.43 percentage points higher than last month. Among them: the domestic iron ore price index is 254.16 points, rising 13.71 points annually, an increase of 5.70%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points over the previous month; the imported iron ore price index is 274.86 points, an increase of 23.55 points annually, an increase of 9.37%, an increase of 5.74 percentage points over the previous month. From the average monthly level, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) is higher than last month. In October, the CIOPI composite index averaged 262.07 points, an increase of 13.38 points from the previous month, an increase of 5.38%. Among them: the average price index of domestic iron ore is 246.64 points, up 9.04 points from last month, up 3.80%; the average price index of imported iron ore is 264.40 points, up 14.03 points annually, up 5.60%. Two, the price of domestic iron ore and imported ore has increased, and the import ore has increased more than domestic ore. At the end of October, the tax price of CIOPI domestic iron concentrate was 654.01 yuan/ton, up 35.30 yuan/ton annually, an increase of 5.70%. The CIOPI imported fine ore landed price was 74.24 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.36 dollars/ton annually, an increase of 9.37%, higher than that of domestic ore by 3.67 percentage points. From the monthly average, the average tax-bearing price of domestic iron concentrate is 634.66 yuan/ton, up 23.27 yuan/ton from last month, an increase of 3.80%. Among them: from October 8th to October 31st, from 618.07 yuan / ton fluctuation up to 654.01 yuan / ton. The average CIF price of imported ore is 71.41 US dollars / ton, up 3.79 US dollars / ton from last month, an increase of 5.60%. Among them, from Oct. 8 to Oct. 30, the fluctuation increased from $68.22 to $74.94 per ton, and slightly decreased on Oct. 31. Three. Analysis of the trend of iron ore price in later stage At present, the macro-economy is running smoothly in general, but it is changing steadily, downward pressure is increasing, and uncertainties are also increasing. Influenced by the steady growth policy and measures of the state, the demand for iron and steel is expected to remain stable in the later period. The output of iron and steel and the intensity of iron ore demand will not increase significantly. The market is basically balanced between supply and demand, and the price of iron ore is difficult to keep rising. 1, iron and steel production fell, iron ore demand intensity declined. According to the statistics of the 10-day report of the Iron and Steel Association, in the middle and early October, the average daily production of crude steel by member iron and steel enterprises was 197.83 million tons, which was estimated to be 2.528 million tons of crude steel nationwide, down 7.13% from September, and the daily production of iron in China was estimated to be 203.3 million tons, down 8.12% from September. Affected by the decline in steel production, iron ore demand intensity has also been reduced. 2, iron ore port remains high, the situation of supply exceeding demand has not changed. At the end of October, the stock of imported iron ore ports in China was 145 million tons, up 20,000 tons annually, an increase of 0.01%; but it rose 9.24 million tons annually, an increase of 6.80%, still at a high level; in September, the output of pig iron in China was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 0.42%; while the import of iron ore was 93.47 million tons, an increase of 4.61%. Overall, the situation of oversupply of iron ore market has not changed. 3, steel prices fluctuate narrowly and iron ore prices are hard to rise sharply. Judging from the trend of steel prices, due to relatively stable demand, supply pressure is greater. According to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 121.72 points at the end of October, up 0.08 points and 0.07% from September, showing a narrow fluctuation trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry dropped by 0.6% in October, with the production index and new order index falling by 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. It is expected that the price of iron ore will not continue to rise in the late stage and will show a slight fluctuation trend. (source: China Iron and Steel Industry Association)

Recently, the All-China Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce held an enterprise exchange meeting in 2018. Zhang Zhixiang, president of the All-China Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce, said that the iron and steel industry is expected to run smoothly in the fourth quarter and that the basic balance of supply and demand in 2018 has become the main tone. Zhang Zhixiang said that in 2018, the management of iron and steel industry had an unprecedented good situation, and the operating performance was the best level in history. Capacity utilization rate has entered a reasonable range, supply and demand are balanced, prices are maintained at a relatively high level, and enterprise benefits are steadily improved. According to the data of China Steel Association, member iron and steel enterprises realized sales revenue of 3.06 trillion yuan in January-September, an increase of 14.47% compared with the previous year, realized profits and taxes of 346.681 billion yuan, an increase of 68.2% compared with the previous year, and realized profits of 229.963 billion yuan, which exceeded the total profits of 2017, an increase of 86.01% compared with the previous year. The steel industry has reversed many years of slight profit or even loss. For private steel enterprises, according to the data from the Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce, the crude steel output of 160 key private enterprises is 340 million tons, an increase of 5.25% over the same period of last year. The output of pig iron was 2.97 million tons, down 0.9% from the same period last year, and the output of steel was 3.82 million tons, an increase of 17.5% over the same period last year. Sales revenue reached 19248 billion yuan, an increase of 168 billion 300 million yuan over the same period, an increase of 130% over the same period last year. "We should not be blindly optimistic about the improvement of efficiency, and the difficulty of maintaining the current level of profitability is increasing." Liu Zhenjiang, secretary-general of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, said recently that September was originally the best month for the iron and steel industry, but the profit margin of sales has declined compared with August. The increase of raw material cost, financial cost, environmental protection cost and operation cost has increased steadily and steadily in the benefit of extrusion mills. Data show that iron and steel capacity expansion impulse is still in place, the problem of excess lumber is outstanding. In September, 2 million 695 thousand tons of crude steel were produced in the whole country, creating a new record in China's steel industry. But it should be noted that 75% of the increase comes from non member enterprises. At the same time, the cost of financing is high, and the financial expenses of enterprises increase by 12.5% over the same period. Zhang Zhixiang also said that the ground bar steel may revive at any time. In the process of capacity conversion, although the state strengthens supervision, strictly regulates capacity replacement, and strictly prohibits new production capacity, there are still some suspected phenomena of big to small, and new iron and steel projects are continuously put into operation. At the same time, all factories are improving the smelting intensity and production efficiency, and will also increase part of the steel output. Liu Zhenjiang has also said that special attention should be paid to the market changes in the fourth quarter, especially the structural changes of steel used next year, good forecasting and market analysis, strict prohibition of new production capacity and prevention of the resurgence of slab steel, consolidation of the results of capacity removal, and acceleration of industrial layout adjustment through joint restructuring. (source: economic reference daily)

Due to the weakening of market mentality, the domestic spot steel price has gone up and down, but the drop is not too big. The iron ore market is stable and weak, and the confidence of the miners in the latter market is not enough. According to the latest market report provided by domestic iron and steel information institutions, the domestic spot steel price composite index closed at 162.11 points in the latest week, falling 0.76% in a week. Recently, the relevant futures market plunged sharply, and the market mentality began to turn weak. Spot steel prices began to decline as a whole, but the trend of varieties was slightly differentiated. The overall turnover of steel city was relatively weak, but turnover was slightly picked up by the end of the week. According to the analysis, in the construction steel market, the price is narrow. The average price of the main specifications of the rebar in the main market of the country is 4722 yuan per ton, and the weekly ring ratio is basically the same. From the latest inventory data, inventory overall continued to decline, but the decline is narrowing. In the sheet metal market, prices generally fell. The price of hot-rolled coil has fallen considerably. The average price of hot-rolled products of mainstream specifications in the main markets of China is 4154 yuan per ton, and 84 yuan per week. Medium and heavy plate prices fell slightly. The average price of medium plate in the mainstream specifications of major markets in China was 4,335 yuan per ton, down 38 yuan per week. Although the fundamentals of the steel market are not very prominent, the pessimism of the market has increased. The iron ore market is stable and weak. According to the latest report of relevant agencies, in the domestic mining market, the price of iron concentrate powder maintained strong, some mining enterprises were limited due to environmental protection, but some steel enterprises'demand for iron concentrate powder also declined. The price of imported iron ore fell successively. As of the 1st day, the price of 62% grade imported iron ore was US$74.55 per ton, down by US$1.95 annually. At present, the Port ore inventories have declined, but the confidence of the miners in the latter market is not enough. According to the analysis of relevant institutions, in November, comprehensive atmospheric control will be promoted in autumn and winter, the start-up rate of blast furnaces in steel mills will decrease, and the stock of society and steel mills will remain low. At the same time, the mentality of most businesses is still more cautious. In the short run, the steel market will mainly operate with weak shocks. (source: Xinhua News Agency)

This week, the domestic steel futures and spot markets are not strong enough, especially the futures market performance is poor, while the spot price of construction steel is relatively strong, and the price of sheet and strip is relatively weak. As of Nov. 2, 2018, the comprehensive price index of Langer Iron and Steel reached 169.3 points, down 0.65% from the same period last week and up 0.75% from the same period last month; the price index of long steel reached 192.1 points, up 0.1% from the same period last week and 3.79% from the same period last month; and the price index of sheet steel reached 149 points, down 1.44% from the same period last week and down 2.03% from the same period last month. This week, the air pollution prevention and control plan of the Wei Wei plain, Tianjin and Shandong provinces was released in autumn and winter. Compared with last year, Tianjin's policy abolished the policy of 50% overall production limit. Enterprises of all types ranged from 50% to 50% production limit, with an average production limit expected to be around 30%. From the time point of view, the production restriction in Tianjin began to be implemented formally on November 1 last year, and it is expected that this year will start from the beginning of the heating season. Looking at the action plan of air pollution control in autumn and winter in Shandong Province, it is mentioned that peak production should be staggered, but there is no specific proportion requirement. From the time point of view, last year's 2 + 26 corridor in the city steel plant production limit for four months (the proportion is not high), this year's time is not less than two months, but also relaxed. The action plan for air pollution control in autumn and winter in Fenwei Plain has also been issued, which proposes staggered peak production in the heating season, but the proportion of specific provinces and municipalities to implement production restrictions is not clear. In addition, the previous rumors that Shagang and Yonggang will limit production by about 50% in November and the final production limit plan of Shagang and Yonggang will be issued this week. Shagang's five small blast furnaces will stop production for half a month, which is expected to affect hot metal production by about 100,000 tons; Yonggang's three small blast furnaces will stop production for one month, and a 1080 blast furnace will stop production for about 20 days, which is expected to affect the total production of hot metal by about 150,000 tons. No expected impact, especially Shagang, Shagang has little impact on building materials, and no discount on screw threads in November. On the one hand, there is stock in the factory, and the steel billet has been prepared in advance. Because of the large screw difference at present, the profit of screw thread is obviously higher than that of coil material, so the hot metal production basically guarantees screw thread, and the main influence will be manifested in the variety of hot coil. In addition, this week, Hebei Province also launched a second-level warning of heavy pollution weather. Some sintering machines were shut down, and there was no wave in the market. From the environmental protection policies issued successively, the production restrictions on the steel industry are indeed looser than the same period last year. However, the situation of production restriction of steel mills in Jiangsu area is not as large as previously expected, resulting in a significant setback of confidence in the steel futures market this week, which also has a certain impact on the spot. This week, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 4064 yuan, down 164 yuan from last Friday. Spot prices of threaded steel are relatively strong, mainly due to the low inventory pressure in various parts of the country at present, and even the situation of specifications out of gear has appeared in some areas. It coincides with the implementation of the new national standard for hot-rolled ribbed steel bars. The production process of many steel mills has changed from water-piercing rolling to alloy hot-rolling. In addition, the price of vanadium alloy has risen sharply, and the production cost of threaded steel mills has generally risen by 100-300 yuan. Although the spot price of threaded steel has not increased significantly this week, the prices of steel mills have increased considerably. In recent weeks, steel mills have adjusted 12-14 mm and 28-32 mm specifications, and the price of grade 4 steel has increased continuously. Although the national base price of threaded steel has not changed much this week, the overall average price of threaded steel has increased considerably. Fortunately, the national steel inventory continued to decline this week. According to the statistics of Langer Iron and Steel Network, the total inventory of construction steel and sheet materials in 29 key cities in China was 8.09 million tons, down 368,000 tons compared with the same period last week, and the decline was basically the same as last week. Among them, construction steel stocks fell by 297,000 tons, down by 117,000 tons from last week, and sheet stocks fell by 71,000 tons, up by 32,000 tons last week. Variety and price differences make the production choice of steel mills gradually changing, the production of threaded steel tends to continue, and the production of sheet and strip may be affected later. On the economic side, the official PMI index of China's manufacturing industry was 50.2% in October, which was 0.6 percentage point lower than last month, lower than expected, and close to the critical point of prosperity and decline. The performance of the downstream industry is gradually weakening, and the demand for sheet metal is worrying. This week, the main contract of hot rolled coil futures closed at 3744 yuan, down 183 yuan from last Friday, and spot hot coil prices generally fell more than 100 yuan. structural steel Specific spot prices, monitoring data show that as of November 2, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in 10 major cities in China was 4708 yuan, up 5 yuan from last Friday and 188 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 2, the average price of 6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 major cities in China was 4948 yuan, down 3 yuan from last Friday and up 121 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 2, the social stock of construction steel in 29 key cities in China reached 39.332 million tons, down 297.3 million tons, or 7.03%, 17.11% from the same period last month, compared with the same period last year, and 17.79% from the same period last year, according to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Merchant Platform. Steel plate & sheet As for the price of hot rolled coils, monitoring data show that as of November 2, the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4095 yuan, 96 yuan lower than last Friday and 133 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 2, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 211.36 million tons, down by 231,000 tons from last Friday, an increase of 1.09%, an increase of 11.11% over the same period last month and a 14.48% increase over the same period last year. As for the price of cold rolled coils, as of November 2, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4,780 yuan, 37 yuan lower than last Friday's price and 75 yuan lower than the same period last month.

Since October 2018, external challenges have increased markedly. Structural adjustment pains have emerged. Economic downward pressure has increased, environmental restrictions are erratic, the futures market has surged upwards, short-term catch-up demand has increased sharply, building materials inventory has dropped sharply, steel mills'profits have increased continuously, the willingness to expand production has increased steadily, and the steel market has surged. By the end of October, the Langer Composite Price Index had closed at 169.9, up 1.13% year-on-year and 7.66% year-on-year (see Figure 1 for details). In November, the domestic steel market shook narrowly, the economy was stable and moderate, the real estate investment was stable, the manufacturing industry was under pressure, the capital construction was expected to recover, the mineral price was rising slightly, the output was maintained at a high level, the environmental protection and production restriction were implemented, and the steel market shook narrowly. It is expected that the Lange composite index will oscillate in a narrow range with a concussion interval of 165-175 and a target value of 168. First, the economy is stable and moderate. According to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in January-September 2018 was 5.4%, which was 0.1 percentage point higher than that in January-August. In September 2018, M1 grew by 4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over August. In September 2018, the M2 growth rate was 8.29%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points over August. In 2018, RMB loans increased by 13 trillion and 140 billion yuan in 1-9 months, up by 1 trillion and 980 billion yuan compared with the previous year (see Figure 2). In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets in China totaled 48344.42 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared with January-August, ending the monthly decline since the beginning of this year and stabilizing investment growth. Four major regional investment growth rates have stabilized. In the first three quarters, investment growth in the east, middle, West and northeast regions has stabilized. Among them, investment in the eastern region increased by 5.8% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than that in January-August; investment in the central region increased by 9.6% and 0.4 percentage points higher; investment in the western region increased by 2.3% and 0.1 percentage points higher than that in the Northeast region. Investment growth was 1.7%, the growth rate was unchanged from 1-8 months. Manufacturing industry has become an important driving force for stimulating investment growth. In the first three quarters, China's manufacturing investment maintained a relatively rapid growth trend, increasing by 8.7% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points higher than in January-August, 4.5 percentage points higher than in the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points higher than the total investment. In the first three quarters, investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 14.9%, 2 percentage points higher than that in January-August, 6.2 percentage points higher than that in all manufacturing industries; investment in technological transformation in manufacturing increased by 15.2%, 6.5 percentage points higher than that in all manufacturing industries. Investment in ecological and environmental protection has increased rapidly. In the first three quarters, the investment in ecological protection and environmental treatment industry increased by 33.7% year on year. Among them, the investment in ecological protection industry increased by 52.8%, the investment in water pollution control industry increased by 30.9%, and the investment in solid waste treatment industry increased by 29.1%. In addition, investment in environmental monitoring special instrumentation manufacturing industry is also up to 45.8%. Private investment continued to maintain rapid growth. In the first three quarters, private investment grew by 8.7% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as in January-August, 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points higher than the total investment. Among the private investment, the investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased by 11.3%, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 9.5%, and the investment in service industry increased by 9.1%. Two, the price of mineral rose slightly. According to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the domestic iron concentrate in October 2018 was 745.66 yuan/ton, up 0.33 yuan/ton from September. In October 2018, domestic coke was 2443.75 yuan / ton, up 93.75 yuan / ton compared with September. According to customs data, the average import price in September 2018 was $70.49 per ton, up $2.89 per ton from August. In October 2018, the przewalskii 62% iron ore index was 72.69, an increase of 3.96 over September (see Figure 3). Iron ore prices have shown signs of rising recently. In November, iron ore prices will maintain a slight upward trend. Three, real estate investment steady According to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, in January-September 2018, the national real estate development investment was 8866.5 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points compared with January-August. Among them, residential investment 62806 billion yuan, an increase of 14%, the growth rate dropped 0.1 percentage points. The proportion of residential investment in real estate development investment is 70.8%. From January to September, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 767.218 million square meters, an increase of 3.9% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January to August. Among them, the residential construction area of 5 billion 302 million 510 thousand square meters, an increase of 4.9%. The new housing area has increased by 1 billion 525 million 830 thousand square meters, an increase of 16.4%, and the growth rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points. Among them, the new residential area of 1 billion 124 million 110 thousand square meters, an increase of 19.4%. Housing completed area of 511 million 320 thousand square meters, down 11.4%, the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points. Among them, the completion of residential area of 361 million 660 thousand square meters, down 12.3%. From January to September, the land purchasing area of real estate development enterprises was 193.66 million square meters, an increase of 15.7% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in January-August. The land transaction price was 100.2 billion yuan, an increase of 22.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 1 percentage point. From January to September, the sales area of commercial housing was 1193.13 million square meters, up 2.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 1.1 percentage points from January to August. Among them, residential sales area increased by 3.3%, office sales area decreased by 9.3%, commercial sales area decreased by 1.1%. Commercial housing sales volume of 104132 billion yuan, an increase of 13.3%, the growth rate dropped 1.2 percentage points. Among them, residential sales increased by 15.6%, office sales decreased by 5.0%, and commercial sales increased by 3.0%. At the end of 9, the area of commercial housing for sale was 531 million 910 thousand square meters, which was 6 million 820 thousand square meters lower than that at the end of 8. Among them, the area for sale of residential buildings decreased by 437,000 square meters, office buildings by 260,000 square meters and commercial commercial houses by 172,000 square meters (see Figure 4 for details). Four, infrastructure is expected to rebound. According to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, from January to September 2018, China's transportation fixed assets investment completed 2.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4% compared with the same period last year. Highway and waterway investment reached 1.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year, and 91.8% of the annual target of 1.8 trillion yuan. Among them, the investment in Expressway completion was 702.6 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0% over the same period of last year. The investment in provincial highway and rural highway completion was 471.7 billion yuan and 354.8 billion yuan, respectively, which decreased by 14.4% and 1.3% over the same period of last year. The investment in waterway construction completion was 81.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% over the same period of last year From January to September, China's railway fixed assets investment completed 57.2289 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9% over the same period last year; among them, the national railway fixed assets investment completed 54.6799 billion yuan, an increase of 5.08% over the same period last year. At present, there are still many short boards in China's development, especially in the field of infrastructure, so making up for them has become an important measure to stabilize investment and steady growth. In the fourth quarter, investment in infrastructure began to accelerate. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has intensively approved a number of high-speed and ultra-high-voltage projects, involving a total investment of 100 billion yuan. On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the feasibility study report of the 300,000-ton waterway reconstruction and expansion project in Zhanjiang Port, and the total investment of the project was estimated at 3.866 billion yuan. On October 17, the National Development and Reform Commission officially approved the feasibility study report on the new Shanghai railway from Suzhou to Huzhou, with a total investment of 36.795 billion yuan. On October 25, the information released by Chongqing Development and Reform Commission showed that the National Development and Reform Commission recently officially approved the feasibility study report of Chongqing-Qianjiang section of Chongqing-Hunan high-speed railway, with a total investment of 53.5 billion yuan. At the same time, many local intercity rail transit projects have been approved by the local development and reform commission, and many provinces and municipalities have issued intensive medium and long-term traffic planning. In October 31st, the general office of the State Council issued the guiding opinions on maintaining the strength of infrastructure in the field of infrastructure, and put forward a major strategy to support the "one belt and one way" construction, the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the development of the Yangtze River economic belt, and the construction of the bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. Qi railway, highway, waterway, airport, water conservancy, energy, agriculture and countryside, ecological and environmental protection, public services, urban and rural infrastructure, shantytowns transformation and other fields have been short-boarded, and major projects that have been incorporated into the planning have been accelerated. At the same time, the Guiding Opinions also set out the key tasks in the nine fields. Among them, in the field of railways, with the central and western regions as the focus, we will accelerate the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" main passage project of high-speed railway, expand regional railway links and further improve the backbone railway network. Promote the planning and construction of inter-city railways in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Dawan District, etc. In the field of airports, we will focus on the early stage of the construction, relocation and expansion of a number of international hub airports and regional airports in the central and Western regions, and strive to start construction as soon as possible. Next, the National Development and Reform Commission will set up a reserve bank for the short-cut board projects, which will be launched in batches in key areas of construction. Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound from the bottom. Five, manufacturing industry under pressure According to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Platform, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 50.2% in October 2018, down 0.6 percentage points from last month. From the 13 sub index, compared with the previous month, in addition to production and business activities expected index is flat. The remaining 12 indices all declined. Among them, the production index, the new order index, the new export order index, the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index decreased by more than 1 percentage point, while the other indexes decreased by less than 1 percentage point. After September, the PMI index continued to decline significantly in October, indicating that the short-term downward pressure of the economy is still large. According to the index, it is expected that industrial production level will continue to decline in October, while domestic and foreign market demand level will decline and export growth rate will decline. Judging from the changes in purchasing volume and raw material inventory, the confidence of enterprises in the market is obviously insufficient. In addition, the price level of industrial products is expected to decrease. At the same time, we need to see that China's economic fundamentals have been significantly improved, and the policy of steady growth and stable expectations is more vigorous. On the whole, the economic downturn caused by short-term factors will not continue to develop. The economic situation will begin to improve at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. The production index is 52%, down 1 percentage points from last month. The new order index was 50.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from last month. The new export orders index was 46.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from last month. The backlog order index was 44.3%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month. Finished goods inventory index was 47.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month. The purchasing volume index was 51%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. The import index was 47.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month. The purchase price index was 58%, down 1.8 percentage points from last month. Ex factory price index was 52%, down 2.3 percentage points from last month. The stock index of raw materials was 47.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month. The supplier delivery time index was 49.5, down 0.2 percentage points from last month. Production and business activity expectations index was 56.4%, unchanged from last month. Six, inventory continues to differentiate In October 2018, domestic steel stocks continued to differentiate. According to the monitoring data of Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the domestic steel social inventory at the end of October 2018 was 8.466 million tons, up 0.01%, down 1.47% year-on-year; among them, 89.69 million tons of wire rod, down 11.75%, down 8.39% year-on-year; 3.09.76 million tons of thread, down 9.61% year-on-year, down 13.64% year-on-year; 213.67 million tons of hot rolling, ring. Compared with the previous year, it increased by 16.52% and 13.39%, cold-rolled 103.08 million tons, ring-to-ring ratio increased by 8.13% and 15.65% respectively, and medium plate 10.68 million tons, ring-to-ring ratio increased by 8.87% and 4.36% respectively.

Reporters from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association held a press conference on October 31, learned that in the first three quarters of this year, the operation of the steel industry has made a stable situation for many years, but the debt rate is still high, but also to guard against blind expansion, not blindly optimistic. According to the China Steel Association, in the first three quarters of the year, China produced 579 million tons of pig iron, 699 million tons of crude steel and 821 million tons of steel, up 1.19%, 6.07% and 7.21% respectively. In the first three quarters, steel prices remained at a reasonable level. Since the beginning of this year, the iron and Steel Association CSPI China steel price index has basically fluctuated between 110 -120 points. At the end of 9, the index was 121.64 points, up 6.87% over the same period last year. Iron ore market order has improved markedly. 1 to September, the country imported 8 million tons of iron ore, down 1.6% from the same period last year, the amount of 55 billion 800 million US dollars, down 5.4% from the same period last year. The economic efficiency of enterprises continued to improve. From January to September, member steel enterprises realized sales revenue of 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.47%; realized profits and taxes of 346.681 billion yuan, an increase of 68.20%; realized total profits of 229.963 billion yuan, an increase of 86.01%. The level of energy conservation and environmental protection has also been improved. From January to September, the total amount of effluent from member iron and steel enterprises decreased by 1.13%, sulfur dioxide and smoke decreased by 12.57%, 8.64% and 7.46% respectively. The consumption of fresh water per ton of steel decreased by 5.52% and the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 2.77%. Asset liability ratio continued to decline. At the end of 9, the assets and liabilities ratio of member iron and steel enterprises was 66.11%, down 3.91 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Liu Zhenjiang, Secretary-General and Secretary-General of the Party Committee of the China Steel Association, pointed out that the iron and steel industry has been running smoothly and achieved good results since this year, but there are still some problems that need to be paid attention to by the whole industry. First, the international trade environment has changed significantly; second, the impulse to expand production capacity driven by profits; third, the assets and liabilities of the iron and steel industry. The rate is still high; the four is blindly optimistic about the improvement of efficiency. Liu Zhenjiang said that the steel industry should pay special attention to the market changes in the fourth quarter and take initiative to take measures to meet the challenges; carefully investigate the structural changes in the demand of the steel industry next year, especially the early study of countermeasures for large-scale varieties whose demand may be weakened; deepen the structural reform on the supply side to maintain the basic balance between supply and demand, and through joint efforts Group to accelerate the adjustment of industrial layout; actively maintain the smooth operation of the industry, promote the continuous improvement of operational quality, regional large enterprises continue to play the role of market stabilizer, maintain market stability; adhere to the concept of green development, further enhance the level of green development of the industry; accurately grasp the transformation and upgrading strategy and path, and strive to promote Enter the iron and steel industry to transform to high quality development. (source: China Securities Net)

On October 31, the steel industry PMI data surveyed and released by the China Federation of Things and Steel Logistics Committee showed that in October was 52.1%, up 0.1% from the previous month. In the main sub-index, production index, new order index, backlog order index and purchasing volume index all increased, and finished product inventory index decreased significantly. PMI shows that with the approaching of limited production season, major steel enterprises are rushing to production, while winter is approaching, some infrastructure facilities are also rushing to meet the deadline, resulting in rapid increase in demand in the short term, rising supply and demand led to the increase of enterprise purchasing volume and backlog orders, while steel factory finished product inventory consumption has accelerated. Demand is picking up and production is booming. Before the production season is approaching, major steel enterprises seize the time to start work, driving steel production in October to continue to maintain vigorous. The production index is 55.7%, a rise of 2.1%. According to the statistics of the China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the member steel enterprises in early October was 198.74 million tons, an increase of 0.13% by 0.26 million tons in the ten-day cycle, and the estimated daily output was 2.5214 million tons nationwide, with a rise of 0.08% by 0.21 million tons in the ten-day cycle. Driven by vigorous production, raw material procurement has increased and inventory consumption has been speeded up. The raw material purchasing volume index was 61.8% in October, up 4.9% from the previous month, while the raw material import index was 56.6%, up 5.9% from the previous month. The stock index of raw materials was 54.2%, a decrease of 3.8%. In October, domestic steel market demand rebounded, the new order index was 52.3%, and the annulus ratio rose by 3.4%. The new export orders index was 47.3%, a rise of 0.8%. According to the monitoring data of snail terminal purchase in Shanghai stock market, the daily average purchasing volume of snail terminal in Shanghai stock market rose 32.63% in October, which was significantly higher than the previous few months. Xu Liying of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center told China Securities News that the regional differentiation of sales volume index and order index of steel circulation enterprises was obvious in October. As the northern region entered winter, especially the northeast region was about to enter a freezing period, the demand for purchasing dropped significantly, with the northeast region sales index down 4.7%, the order index. The number slipped by 4.3%. However, the sales and orders index in the South showed a rebound, with the double index in the south, southwest and northwest rising between 0.3% and 1.1%. As the climate turns cold, regional procurement demand will continue to differentiate in the future, and the phenomenon of "north timber coming down south" will become the main direction of steel circulation. Xu Li Ying believes that the tight supply and demand balance of the steel industry will continue in November, environmental pressure, elastic boundary and strict supervision, there is a trend of continued contraction. Variety needs continue to differentiate, and construction steel is stronger than steel for manufacturing. Affected by climate factors, the regional differentiation between the north and the South will also be more significant, the future market expectations of enterprises will weaken, and the market demand for steel circulation is expected to continue to be under pressure in November. Aftermarket steel prices are expected to shock upward Before the production season comes, many downstream enterprises are facing a double test of rush time and stock, so strong willingness to buy, resulting in a substantial reduction in finished product stocks in steel mills. In October, the finished goods inventory index was 42.3%, a sharp decrease of 11.4% in the ring ratio. As part of the enterprise stocking stage, and there is no rush to put into use, so that social inventories have increased. According to statistics of the China Steel Association, in October 2018, the total social stock of five major types of steel products in 20 cities in China was 9.4 million tons, up 0.8% from 70,000 tons, including 8.52 million tons in the steel market, up 0.08% from 0.5 million tons in the year-to-year period, 870,000 tons in the port and 67,000 tons in the year-to-year period, up 8.3%. This month, the five major varieties of steel social inventory has risen and fallen, including hot rolled coil inventory rose by 7.1%, cold rolled coil inventory by 3.0%, plate inventory by 7.4%, wire stock by 8.2%, screw steel inventory by 2.7%. In October, domestic steel prices continued to rise. Zhuo steel chain data show that on October 8, the Shanghai rebar index was 4560.3 yuan / ton, to October 29, the Shanghai rebar index rose to 4702.8 yuan / ton, the highest level so far this year. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, steel plant inventory is at a low level, which has a certain support for steel prices; secondly, the rise of raw material prices has a certain support for steel prices; thirdly, infrastructure investment has the possibility of further stabilization, which is conducive to stabilizing the steel market demand. Since October, Shanxi, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and most other northern regions have introduced the autumn and winter production restriction program. On October 26, the Shandong Economic and Information Commission and the Environmental Protection Department jointly issued a "Notice on Organizing and Implementing Differentiated Crosspeak Production in Autumn and Winter of the Key Industries from 2018 to 2019", which calls for steel, coking and foundry enterprises in Jinan, Zibo, Jining, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Binzhou and Heze in seven corridor cities from 2011 to 2018. From 15 to March 15, 2019, we took the production of staggering peak. Municipalities may appropriately prolong or shorten peak-crossing production time according to air quality, but the implementation time of peak-crossing production shall not be less than 2 months, and must include December 2018 and January 2019. With the implementation of the policy of limiting production, the supply level will also be reduced, so as to provide certain support for price. According to the PMI report, production continued to rise in October, downstream demand increased significantly in the short term, backlog orders also rose, and steel prices continued to rise. With the coming of production restriction policy, the situation of supply less than demand is unavoidable, and the cost of raw materials increases, steel prices will be supported at a high level under a series of factors, and steel prices may still show an upward trend in the future. (source: China Certification Network)