China Steel Association: late iron ore prices can not continue to rise

In October, influenced by the steady growth policies and measures of the state, the market expectations increased, and the release of iron and steel production capacity maintained a high level, which led to the increase of iron ore demand expectations and prices. Later market is about to enter the off-season of steel consumption, steel output will be reduced, iron ore demand intensity will show a downward trend, price is difficult to sustain rising, will show a small fluctuation trend.

1. China's iron ore price index has increased.

According to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) was 272.14 points at the end of October, up 22.25 points annually, or 8.90%, 5.43 percentage points higher than last month. Among them: the domestic iron ore price index is 254.16 points, rising 13.71 points annually, an increase of 5.70%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points over the previous month; the imported iron ore price index is 274.86 points, an increase of 23.55 points annually, an increase of 9.37%, an increase of 5.74 percentage points over the previous month.

From the average monthly level, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) is higher than last month. In October, the CIOPI composite index averaged 262.07 points, an increase of 13.38 points from the previous month, an increase of 5.38%. Among them: the average price index of domestic iron ore is 246.64 points, up 9.04 points from last month, up 3.80%; the average price index of imported iron ore is 264.40 points, up 14.03 points annually, up 5.60%.

Two, the price of domestic iron ore and imported ore has increased, and the import ore has increased more than domestic ore.

At the end of October, the tax price of CIOPI domestic iron concentrate was 654.01 yuan/ton, up 35.30 yuan/ton annually, an increase of 5.70%. The CIOPI imported fine ore landed price was 74.24 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.36 dollars/ton annually, an increase of 9.37%, higher than that of domestic ore by 3.67 percentage points.

From the monthly average, the average tax-bearing price of domestic iron concentrate is 634.66 yuan/ton, up 23.27 yuan/ton from last month, an increase of 3.80%. Among them: from October 8th to October 31st, from 618.07 yuan / ton fluctuation up to 654.01 yuan / ton.

The average CIF price of imported ore is 71.41 US dollars / ton, up 3.79 US dollars / ton from last month, an increase of 5.60%. Among them, from Oct. 8 to Oct. 30, the fluctuation increased from $68.22 to $74.94 per ton, and slightly decreased on Oct. 31.

Three. Analysis of the trend of iron ore price in later stage

At present, the macro-economy is running smoothly in general, but it is changing steadily, downward pressure is increasing, and uncertainties are also increasing. Influenced by the steady growth policy and measures of the state, the demand for iron and steel is expected to remain stable in the later period. The output of iron and steel and the intensity of iron ore demand will not increase significantly. The market is basically balanced between supply and demand, and the price of iron ore is difficult to keep rising.

1, iron and steel production fell, iron ore demand intensity declined.

According to the statistics of the 10-day report of the Iron and Steel Association, in the middle and early October, the average daily production of crude steel by member iron and steel enterprises was 197.83 million tons, which was estimated to be 2.528 million tons of crude steel nationwide, down 7.13% from September, and the daily production of iron in China was estimated to be 203.3 million tons, down 8.12% from September. Affected by the decline in steel production, iron ore demand intensity has also been reduced.

2, iron ore port remains high, the situation of supply exceeding demand has not changed.

At the end of October, the stock of imported iron ore ports in China was 145 million tons, up 20,000 tons annually, an increase of 0.01%; but it rose 9.24 million tons annually, an increase of 6.80%, still at a high level; in September, the output of pig iron in China was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 0.42%; while the import of iron ore was 93.47 million tons, an increase of 4.61%. Overall, the situation of oversupply of iron ore market has not changed.

3, steel prices fluctuate narrowly and iron ore prices are hard to rise sharply.

Judging from the trend of steel prices, due to relatively stable demand, supply pressure is greater. According to the monitoring by the Iron and Steel Association, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 121.72 points at the end of October, up 0.08 points and 0.07% from September, showing a narrow fluctuation trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry dropped by 0.6% in October, with the production index and new order index falling by 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. It is expected that the price of iron ore will not continue to rise in the late stage and will show a slight fluctuation trend. (source: China Iron and Steel Industry Association)